Three scenarios for a Second Automobile Revolution. The riskiest is not the more improbable

Reference

Freyssenet M., Three scenarios for a Second Automobile Revolution. The riskiest is not the more improbable, 2011 MMRC-Hosei RIIM-IMVP World Auto Industry Forum: “Changes and Challenges of the Global Automobile Industry: Competiton, Cooperation and Innovation for Sustainable Growth”, Hosei University, Tokyo, 4 march 2011. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2011, 700 Ko, ISSN 7116-0941.

Freyssenet M., Slides presentation: Three scenarios for a Second Automobile Revolution. The riskiest is not the more improbable, 2011 MMRC-Hosei RIIM-IMVP World Auto Industry Forum: “Changes and Challenges of the Global Automobile Industry: Competiton, Cooperation and Innovation for Sustainable Growth”, Hosei University, Tokyo, 4 march 2011. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2011, 1 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

The text and the slides presentation are downloadable. Please, go to the bottom of this page.

They are adapted, improved and actualized versions of Freyssenet M., A Second Automobile Revolution? Firms Strategies and Public Policies, in Jullien B. (ed.), Proceedings of the 18th International GERPISA colloquium, « The Greening of the Global Auto Industry in a Period of Crisis », 9-11 June 2010, Berlin, Digital publications, http://leblog.gerpisa.org, 2010; freyssenet.com, 2010, 160 Ko, ISSN 7116-0941.

Abstract

Since 2008, the conditions for a real transition to all cleaner vehicles are fulfilling, after several failures throughout the 20th century. The quivering observed towards the alternative motorizations could be the start of at least three scenarios. The consequences of these three scenarios on the geography, the structure, the economy and the sociology of the world car industry are completely different. In the first scenario, each car producer will be able to find its regional niche. In the second, only most powerful carmakers will survive. In the third, the newcomers and the innovating enterprises will have the possibility of engage a rapid « Second Automobile Revolution ». The winning scenario will prevail, after confused and nevertheless rough fights, not because of its technical superiority or of its best environmental performances, but initially because of energy geopolitics and of firm profit strategies. For these reasons, the third scenario, the scenario of electric vehicle, that appears today most random, could impose in the next years, as the improbable petrol car scenario imposed one century ago.

Content

1. The scenario of the diversity
2. The scenario of the progressiveness
3. The scenario of the rupture

Key words

Second Automobile Revolution, hybrid vehicle, plug-in hybrid, electric car, gasoline car, coalition, innovation

Concerned disciplines

Economics, Management, Geography, History, History of Sciences and Technologies, Engineering, Political Science, Sociology

Writing context

Contribution
to personal questioning
to scientific reflection of research laboratory or network
to national and international scientific debate
to diffusion of scientific results
to implementation of scientific results

References, commentaries, critics

Current relevance

See also

✔ Freyssenet M., A Second Automobile Revolution? Firms Strategies and Public Policies, in Jullien B. (ed.), Proceedings of the 18th International GERPISA colloquium, « The Greening of the Global Auto Industry in a Period of Crisis », 9-11 June 2010, Berlin, Digital publications, http://leblog.gerpisa.org, 2010; freyssenet.com, 2010, 160 Ko, ISSN 7116-0941.

✔ Freyssenet M., The beginnings of a Second Automobile Revolution. Firms strategies and public policies, Convegno « Sfide ed opportunità della filiera automobilistica », organizzato dalla rivista "Economia e Politica Industriale", 17 Maggio 2010, Milano. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1 Mo, ISSN 7116-0941.

✔ Freyssenet M., Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis, DAEHAN Journal of Business, vol 23, n° 5, October 2010, pp 2899-2914. Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2011, 952 Ko, ISSN 7116-0941.

Date of the on lining of the downloadable text

2011.03.06

Dates of updatings

Fichier attachéTaille
Three scenarios for a Second Automobile Revolution. The rikiest is not the more improbable.pdf720.62 Ko
Slides presentation, Three scenarios for a Second Automobile Revolution. The rikiest is not the more improbable.pdf1.02 Mo